Links for 2020-07-29

  • US Spring school closures tied to drastic decrease in Covid-19 cases, deaths in model

    Their projection found that, if schools had stayed open, there could have been roughly 424 more coronavirus infections and 13 more deaths per 100,000 residents over the course of 26 days. Extrapolate that to the American population, and the country might have seen as many as 1.37 million more cases and 40,600 more deaths, explained Samir Shah, the director of hospital medicine at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center and one of the authors of the paper. “These numbers seem ridiculously high and it’s mind-boggling to think that these numbers are only … in the first several weeks,” said Shah. “That’s bonkers.” He warned, though, that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. While their statistical model attempts to pinpoint the impact of schools staying open or being closed, the method can’t actually establish any sort of causal relationship.

    (tags: models modelling schools reopening covid-19 kids us)

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  1. Nix
    Posted July 31, 2020 at 23:52 | Permalink

    That feels very much like misattributing the effects of all the other stuff done at the same time to school closures. Sweden did not close its schools or do many other things that other counries did in their lockdown, and while it saw quite a high surge, it was still lower than, say, the UK (which did lock down quite strictly) and nothing like as bad as this model suggests it should have been.

  2. Posted August 4, 2020 at 11:57 | Permalink

    yeah, the lack of strict causal relationships makes it hard to tell what’s going on.