Detailed thread from Professor Philip Nolan on Twitter, on the scenario modelling used by NPHET to inform the government on likely COVID-19 infection trajectories; several models are used, including a basic SEIR model and an agent-based model, “where social structures and transmission are simulated in detail at the individual level; these show rapid spread in younger people with transmission into older groups, and highlight uncertainty on the role of children and adolescents”, and the role of super-spreader events. tl;dr: “a variant with a transmission advantage [ie., Delta] can do very significant damage if we let it spread in a partially vaccinated population, the scale of the damage depends on the transmission advantage, and it starts slowly and escalates rapidly.”
“19 March 1991: Three software developers. One desk. No chairs.” — I was there!
arm_freq_min and over_voltage settings do the job
According to one calculation, the heat wave was five standard deviations above expectations, meaning it was an event that should arrive, in the absence of climate change, once every 5,000 years. That’s once since the age of Ancient Egypt. We are experiencing that five-sigma event this year. In British Columbia, it was as hot as it was in Death Valley, California. They called it Death Valley for a reason.